Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.
Here’s what you need to know:
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Gold traded above $3300/oz all week, peaking near $3400 before settling closer to $3320 on Friday.
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Weak U.S. manufacturing and labor data helped boost gold early in the week.
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A stronger-than-expected May Jobs Report reversed some of those gains, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields.
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Gold remains rangebound, reflecting trader caution ahead of key inflation data due next week.
So, What Kind of a Week Has it Been?
The first trading days of June 2025 ultimately felt much less volatile and emotionally driven for gold markets than the previous month. This was thanks largely to headlines around the Trump Tariffs slowing to a trickle and generally being less inflammatory. Whether that should signal a calmer stretch in Washington or is just a sign of the summertime trading doldrums setting in early is unclear.
ISM Miss Sparks a Risk-Off Start
The week began with investors and traders falling back into a risk-off mood that bordered on frantic in some corners of global markets. This swing was exacerbated by an ugly ISM Manufacturing Survey print on Monday morning, which reported the US' critical industrial sector slowed farther into contraction last month rather than a moderate re-acceleration as expected by the consensus.
The US Dollar fell again after being battered in the previous week, and this again provided a strong and steady tailwind for gold prices. By the time US markets opened to start the week (even well before the ISM data printed), the gold spot had moved well above $3300/oz, a level that the yellow metal has not looked back at since.
Gold Momentum Stalls Near $3400
Volatility in the gold market dropped off considerably after a slight leg higher on Tuesday morning as gold's momentum carried on through most of the week. The precious metal made occasional forays to within touching distance of $3400, but thanks to a more up-and-down run for the US Dollar that included a few bullish rallies, there was never enough buying interest (or else there was too much profit-taking pressure) to consolidate a hold so high.
On the run-up to Friday, gold spot prices seemed somewhat tethered and comfortable, just north of $3350/oz.
Jobs Data Fuels Confusion
We did see some shaky US labor market data— a sharp downside miss in the ADP count of private payroll jobs added in the US last month and a higher-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims number— that caught some traders' attention and surely led to some hand-wringing about growth risks as created by the US administration's threatened packages of punitive tariffs.
We might have looked for traders to dig deeper into risk-off positions, generally to the benefit of gold spot. However, investors and others in the market often make the mistake of assuming that how a given month's ADP number prints relative to expectations has a proportional and (most importantly) directional relationship to how the same week/month's non-farms payroll number will print. Historical reviews of the two data points simply do not bear this out, but the White House's susceptibility to this incorrect assumption may have dampened gold's rally on Wednesday and Thursday.
The US President used the weak ADP number as an excuse to begin again making public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his unwillingness to hurry up with the interest rate cuts. As it had at times in the past, this coincided with one of this week's surges in the US Dollar, which mitigated any risk-off boost that gold may have gotten during the week.
Stronger NFP Pushes Gold Back Down
Friday confirmed the data record: Despite the weak ADP number on Wednesday, the NFP came in somewhat higher than expected. The May Jobs Report, as a singular data set, did meaningfully boost both the US Dollar towards the end of the week and spiked yields on US Treasury Paper.
This counter-signal, along with clear interest from gold-longs to take a profit ahead of one of the unknowable weekends of news that has become a hallmark of the Trump presidency, has pushed gold prices back towards a familiar perch at $3320/oz to end the week.
Looking Ahead
Next week, we continue to dig back into the core US economic data, with an updated read on consumer price inflation in the US due on Wednesday.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap.