Key Points
Since the pandemic began, the stock market has proven to be erratic, plunging at times only to quickly recover and launch into fresh bull markets. Today, with plenty of new uncertainty due to issues including President Donald Trump's trade wars, U.S. fiscal concerns, and the concerning trajectory of the U.S. economy, more volatility is certainly on the docket. That's why investors may want to check out some dividend stocks, which can provide reliable passive income. The returns of dividend stocks can be much more dependable than those of non-payers, especially if you choose ones with good track records and the ability to grow their earnings and free cash flows so they can keep regularly increasing their payouts.
Here are two dividend stocks that meet those criteria that investors can feel comfortable buying and holding for the next two years.
Nike: A turnaround that will hopefully pay investors more for their patience
The iconic footwear and apparel company Nike (NYSE: NKE) has been less than iconic as a stock lately. It's now down by about 39% over the last five years (as of June 4). Intensifying competition in the footwear and apparel space, struggles with the brand, and an excessive focus on digital promotions and sales have resulted in the company underperforming in recent years.
To change its trajectory, the board hired longtime Nike veteran Elliot Hill out of retirement to take the helm, and Nike is now deeply entrenched in his turnaround plan. Hill is focused on getting the company back to what it does best -- renewing its intense focus on the brand, leading the way on product innovation, and reactivating and improving its sales relationships with wholesalers. Hill also said earlier this year that Nike will be focused on five product areas -- running, basketball, football, training, and sportswear -- and three markets: the U.S., the United Kingdom, and China.
But as some analysts have pointed out, Nike's turnaround could take longer than expected, especially if the global trade war continues or if the U.S. economy tips into a recession. A longer turnaround could make it difficult to entice investors to buy and hold the stock, which is why Nike is likely to make paying and raising its dividend a priority. Its yield of about 2.6% at the current share price isn't bad, but it trails most Treasury yields right now and over the past few years.
In November, Nike increased its quarterly dividend by 8%, marking the 23rd consecutive year the company has hiked the payout. In a couple more years, Nike is likely to join an exclusive club -- the Dividend Aristocrats®, which are S&P 500 companies that have increased their payouts for a minimum of 25 straight years. (The term Dividend Aristocrats® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC.)
Its ascension into that group will give Nike added some credibility among dividend investors. Nike also has a trailing 12-month free cash flow yield of 5.66%, more than double its current dividend yield.
Nike has a good dividend track record and clear incentives to keep raising its payouts to reward shareholders for their patience. If its turnaround is successful, that should also enable the company to grow earnings and free cash flow, which will also bolster its capacity to pay higher dividends.
Wells Fargo: Finally on the offensive after seven years
If you've followed Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) , then you know that the bank has been on a bumpy ride over the last decade. In 2016, it came to light that large numbers of employees at the bank had been opening banking and credit card accounts in customers' names without those customers' authorization. The scandal evolved into a reputational nightmare for Wells Fargo and cost it billions of dollars in fines and lost profits. Regulators put various restrictions and consent order s on the bank to monitor its actions. In addition, the Federal Reserve in 2018 put an asset cap on it, preventing it from growing its balance sheet above $1.95 trillion -- limiting its ability to expand, pursue acquisitions, and make more money.
In 2019, the bank brought on Charlie Scharf to take over as CEO, and he did a tremendous amount of work to overhaul the bank's regulatory infrastructure and leadership team. Scharf also significantly cut expenses, sold off non-core assets, and ramped up higher-returning businesses like investment banking and credit card lending.
This year, after Trump returned to the White House, banking regulators under his administration quickly terminated the consent orders that were put in place to monitor its behavior in the wake of the scandal, and just recently lifted the asset cap . That's a massive deal for the bank, which can now begin to grow its balance sheet again and go on the offensive in the financial services market.
During the pandemic, Wells Fargo was one of the few banks forced to cut its dividend due to regulations put into place by the Federal Reserve. While the bank has been able to regrow its payout, its yield still sits in the bottom half of its peer group.
Furthermore, broader deregulation of the banking sector from Trump and his administrators is likely on the way. I suspect the largest banks will eventually have much lower regulatory capital requirements than they have now, which will allow them to return more capital to shareholders. Furthermore, Wall Street analysts on average currently expect Wells Fargo to grow its diluted earnings per share by about 8% this year and by close to 14% next year, according to data provided by Visible Alpha . Over the last 12 months, Wells Fargo's dividends only consumed about 31% of earnings, so it should have plenty of opportunities to keep growing its payouts in the coming years.
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