Investing.com -- TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo cautioned that risks for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) could surge if U.S. allies follow Washington’s lead in restricting trade with China. In a statement reacting to recent reporting by CNBC, Kuo said the entire situation has become “highly unpredictable.”
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce warned Monday it would retaliate against countries cooperating with U.S. efforts to isolate Beijing, according to CNBC’s translation of a government statement. The U.S. under President Donald Trump has intensified tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 145% and is reportedly pressuring allies to adopt similar measures.
“If restrictions on trade with China involve urging other countries to raise their tariffs, the risks for Apple would rise sharply,” Kuo said. Apple’s supply chain remains deeply reliant on China, particularly for iPhone assembly, with limited capacity currently outside the country.
Kuo added that if only the U.S. imposes tariffs, Apple can manage the pressures through reallocation of supply and pricing strategies. But if other markets impose similar duties, Apple would be forced to build new production lines outside China to meet demand—triggering “immeasurable and uncontrollable” risks.
Apple has moved some manufacturing to India and Vietnam in recent years, but large-scale diversification remains a long-term project. A broad-based global tariff shift could outpace Apple’s ability to transition, placing pressure on margins and supply stability.
China’s warning coincides with its own retaliatory measures, including 125% tariffs on select U.S. imports and restrictions on strategic mineral exports. Beijing has also filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization and replaced its top trade negotiator amid growing friction.
While some experts believe full U.S.–China decoupling is unlikely due to mutual business interdependence, the near-term risk landscape has shifted dramatically. “This may suggest that the tariff risks for Apple could escalate significantly,” Kuo concluded.
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