Investing.com -- JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on the Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gold mining sector, forecasting as much as 60–90% upside if gold prices reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
Despite EMEA miners already gaining 20–50% year-to-date, the bank sees further room to run, fueled by rising investor and central bank demand, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty.
“On JPM Commodities Research 2026 gold price forecast of ~$4,100/oz, we estimate 40-60% upside to consensus 2026 EBITDA for EMEA Gold Miners, with 60-90% upside vs current share prices under this same scenario,” JPMorgan strategists led by Patrick Jones said in a note.
Fresnillo (LON: FRES ) remains JPMorgan’s top pick in the sector, with the price target raised to £14.50 from £10.
The stock is seen as attractively valued, trading around 4.5–5x spot EV/EBITDA and offering a ~10% free cash flow (FCF) yield.
Under a bullish gold price scenario, JPMorgan sees a fair value of £18.50 per share, which implies ~90% upside.
“With no projects in execution this year, its near-term production profile is lower risk, in our view,” strategists said.
The bank also reiterated Overweight ratings on Hochschild and AngloGold Ashanti, citing attractive valuations and scope for re-rating.
“We believe [Hochschild’s] management has a credible plan to rectify the issues at Mara Rosa, near term,” and highlighted long-term growth potential from other projects.
AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU ) is expected to benefit from its U.S. listing and lack of South Africa exposure, which should enhance its comparability to global peers.
JPMorgan’s gold price upgrade to $3,295/oz in 2025 and $3,596/oz in 2026 reflects recent moves in the forward curve, and underpins revised earnings estimates across the coverage universe.
The bank also emphasized that the macro backdrop—stagflation risks, recession fears, and global policy uncertainty—continues to support strong institutional and retail gold demand.
Gold, JPMorgan argues, remains one of the most effective hedges against “stagflation, recession, debasement and U.S. policy risks” in 2025 and 2026.
“Increased probabilities of a U.S. recession and potential for quicker Fed cuts in response further reinforce this bullish narrative,” the strategists added.