By Wen-Yee Lee
TAIPEI (Reuters) -TSMC, the world’s main producer of advanced AI chips, is expected to post a 52% jump in second-quarter profit to record levels, though U.S. tariffs and a strong Taiwan dollar could weigh on its outlook.
Artificial intelligence-related demand continues to boom and while foundry industry revenue will probably grow 17% to 18% this year, sales for TSMC, by virtue of its market-leading position, will likely expand closer to 30%, said Mario Morales, group vice president at research firm IDC.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), is forecast to report net profit of T$377.4 billion ($12.9 billion) for the three months through June 30, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 21 analysts.
SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.
TSMC has already flagged a rise in second-quarter revenue of 38.6%. Any profit result above T$374.68 billion would mark the company’s highest-ever quarterly net income and its sixth consecutive quarter of profit growth.
It remains unclear just how much U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will affect TSMC.
Taiwan was threatened with a 32% reciprocal tariff rate in April but has yet to be notified of an updated figure that some countries have received. Trump also said this month that tariffs on semiconductors are likely to come soon.
The company said in June that U.S. tariffs were having some indirect impact, noting they can lead to slightly higher prices, which may in turn weigh on demand.
In March, TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. alongside Trump at the White House, on top of $65 billion pledged for three Arizona plants - two of which have been built.
Another key issue is the Taiwan dollar’s 12% appreciation against the greenback so far this year.
"The exchange rate is a bigger concern as so much TSMC revenue is in USD," said Dan Nystedt, vice-president at TriOrient, an Asia-based private investment firm.
TSMC has said a 1% appreciation in the Taiwan dollar typically reduces its gross margin by 0.4 percentage points. In June, the company said the Taiwan dollar’s appreciation had shaved more than 3 percentage points off its gross margin.
The company is due to report on Thursday and will provide third-quarter guidance during an earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT.
Shares in TSMC surged some 80% last year but have climbed just 3.7% for the year to date on worries about tariffs and unfavourable currency rates.
($1 = 29.2610 Taiwan dollars)