GDPNow
at essentially zero growth.
Industrial production
and
retail sales
(control) surprise downside.
That being said, net exports are providing an outsized negative contribution in an accounting sense to Q1 GDP (-2.86 ppts q/q AR).
Business cycle indicators augmented today with industrial production indicate a slowdown, but we don’t yet have the critical consumption and personal income numbers for March.
2025 release), and author’s calculations.
Here’s a picture of real retail sales excluding food sales and ex-motor vehicles.
By my accounting, nominal motor vehicle sales increased 13% m/m (not annualized), while non-motor vehicle sales rose 0.5%. In other words, there’s a lot of tariff jumping aimed at avoiding higher car prices.
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