Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted
GDPNow
, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index stands at 2.83%.
GS and GDPNow stand apart from NY Fed and St. Louis Fed nowcasts. I don’t have a complete explanation why this is the case, although I suspect that it has to do with the top-down approach of the NY Fed nowcast having a hard time accounting for the import surge caused by the front-running of tariffs. Jim Hamilton gave a rundown of the basic differences between the NY Fed and Atlanta Fed nowcasts here. The NY Fed is a top-down nowcast, while the Atlanta Fed is a bottom-up nowcast, building up from NIPA components (consumption, investment components, government spending, exports, imports, inventory accumulation).
Here’s the gold-adjusted NIPA imports. Notice the jump in nowcasted 2025Q1.
Presumably, some of the spike in imports will be reversed in Q2, pulling up GDP in that quarter. However, other components of GDP (say investment) might take a dive, so in the end, it may be a lackluster growth.
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