Market Insights

Global markets remain driven by softer US inflation data, which has weighed on the US dollar amid rising expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Adding to the dollar’s pressure, optimistic headlines around a US-China trade agreement have lifted global risk sentiment.

United States – Dollar Falls on Weak Inflation

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the key 99.00 support level, hitting its lowest point in several days as Treasury yields declined.

Today’s spotlight:

• Producer Price Index (PPI)
  
  
• Weekly Jobless Claims

These data points will be critical in confirming the inflation and labor market trajectory.

Continued softness = stronger case for a Fed rate cut in September = more downside for the dollar.

Outlook:

A weaker-than-expected reading could push DXY below 98.70, targeting 98.30 next.

EUR/USD – Gains Extend Toward Key Resistance

The euro continued to gain against the dollar, approaching the psychological 1.1500 barrier, buoyed by ongoing USD weakness.

Focus shifts to upcoming ECB speakers:

• Isabel Schnabel
  
  
• Luis de Guindos
  
  
• Frank Elderson

Outlook:

A decisive break above 1.1500 could open the door toward 1.1560.

GBP/USD – All Eyes on UK Macro Data

Sterling remained resilient above 1.3500 following a rebound from Tuesday’s dip, with a heavy UK data docket ahead:

Key releases include:

• Monthly GDP
  
  
• Industrial & Manufacturing Production
  
  
• Trade Balance
  
  
• NIESR GDP Estimate
  
  
• RICS House Price Index

Outlook:

• Positive data → push toward 1.3580–1.3620
  
  
• Weak data → downside risk toward 1.3450

USD/JPY – Struggling to Sustain Gains

The USD/JPY pair reversed Tuesday’s gains, dropping back toward 144.30.

Markets await:

• BSI Manufacturing Index
  
  
• Foreign bond investment data

Outlook:

Unless demand for USD recovers, bearish momentum could drag the pair toward 143.80.

AUD/USD – Yearly Highs Amid Volatility

The Aussie climbed to a new 2025 high near 0.6550 before pulling back toward the 0.6500 mark.

Key drivers ahead:

• Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations
  
  
• Speech from RBA Governor Jacobs

Outlook:

Bullish momentum remains intact unless 0.6480 is broken.

Oil (WTI) – Sharp Rise on Trade Optimism

West Texas Intermediate crude surged above $68.00, reaching a two-month high.

Supportive catalysts:

• Progress in US-China trade talks
  
  
• Drop in US inventories per latest reports

Outlook:

Stability above $68.00 could pave the way for a move toward $69.20–70.00.

Gold – Rally Continues on Dollar Weakness

Gold climbed steadily to hit a multi-day high near $3360/oz, supported by:

• Safe-haven flows
  
  
• USD softness
  
  
• Inflation concerns

Outlook:

A confirmed break above $3365 could trigger a move toward $3385–3400.

Silver – Testing Key Support Level

Silver pulled back sharply toward the $36.00 mark, now testing a significant technical support zone.

Outlook:

• A break below $36.00 opens downside toward $35.20
  
  
• A bounce may send prices back to $37.00

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This article was written by the author with assistance from language generation tools to support structure and clarity. All insights and opinions are entirely the author’s own.