The session hasn’t been too volatile as markets brace for today’s key US CPI release, where markets will get further information on the impact of the infamous Trump Tariffs.
On that aspect, even with the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) developments, there is still an extra 10% base tariff on all US imports that will surely impact inflation outlooks for the upcoming months, even with less tariffs expected overall.
US and China ongoing talks in London are reported to be going well.
In that aspect, US negotiators are working all around the world, with US-India talks also progressing and discussions with Iran not looking as rosy. One of the themes that is restraining an ever-more risk-on mood in Financial Markets.
The picture in Crypto is also looking decent with BTC hanging close to the $110,000 mark and other altcoins enjoying the positive mood in the Crypto landscape.
Most products are close to unchanged around all asset classes – except for the Natural Gas futures that are down 3% on the day and about 7% from Friday’s highs.
Oil broke out through the overnight session and touched the 66.50 resistance. Prices are now back to test the highs of the Daily descending Channel – Right now trading around the $65 mark.
A Picture of Yesterday’s Performance for Major Currencies
Yesterday’s Forex picture is once again fairly flat with all majors limited to a +/- 0.40% move from the US dollar .
The Greenback is in the middle of the currency board, although the DXY is starting to form some interesting technical patterns for a retracement higher – A strong CPI will contribute to more strength for the Dollar.
More on this further in the article .
The Pound has been lagging on the day after a lackluster UK employment report , though the move is still constrained by low volatility across the board. GBP/USD is down 0.38% on the session.
A Look at the Economic Calendar for Tomorrow’s Session
Tomorrow’s main event is the upcoming US CPI that should be a main market mover, particularly after a relatively calm beginning to this trading week.
The CPI number is expected at 0.2% M/M, bringing up the CPI year-over-year number to 2.5% on the Headline inflation number. The Federal Reserve is looking particularly more at the Core inflation number, excluding more volatile Food and Energy prices, expected at 2.9%.
Expect upcoming reports to have an even bigger difference between Core and Headline inflation numbers as Energy prices are expected to rise from their 2021 lows.
There are also two ECB speakers in Lane and Cipollone - we will see what they have to say in their first speeches since last week’s ECB 25bps cut.
Today should be a mover, get ready!
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